TRS investors hold onto their investments as it marginally outperforms
17 Dec, 201813 min read
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TRIMAS CORP outperformed the broader market on Monday. It increased by +0.04% to close at 27.28. It is currently trading +18% above it's 52 week low of 22.95 and is down only -13% from it's 52 week high.
Buy-and-Hold investors in TRS experienced a maximum drawdown of -13.98% over the last three months. It fell by -12.56% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +8.47%.
TRS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 18 May, 2016 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TRS outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
During the last three months TRS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.3%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.3%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.38% of investor capital.
During the last year TRS had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. TRS returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TRS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +7.33% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TRS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.
Making money from enforcing patents is no more wrong than investing in preferred stock.
-- Nathan Myhrvold
TRS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TRS's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 12 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TRS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TRS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TRS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TRS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TRS in your portfolio. TRS usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
On a general note (since you are interested in TRS), three instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH, TYHT and APRN. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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