TEJON RANCH CO

17.48 +0.93 (+5.3%) Sell

Profit booking on the minds of TRC investors as it performed better than the broader market

13 min read

TRC was among the best performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in TEJON RANCH CO made +0.04% per day. Wednesday's performance of +5.3% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing TRC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TRC experienced a maximum drawdown of -27.73% over the last three months. It returned -19.04% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +14.4%.

Trend

TRC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 25 Nov, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, TRC underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months TRC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.32% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.3%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.01%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.24% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.84% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, TRC delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. TRC delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TRC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -11.34% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TRC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -30.56%. It is interesting to note that both TRC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

What we now call 'finance' is, I hold, an intellectual perversion of what began as warm human love.
-- Robert Graves

TRC is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TRC's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 12 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TRC has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TRC is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

TRC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, TRC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TRC.

On a general note (since you are interested in TRC), CSCO is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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