TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC.

45.14 -1.51 (-3.34%) Sell

TPX is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC. significantly underperformed today. It lost -3.34% to close at 45.14. During the last week it lost -10.37% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.61% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing TPX]

TPX is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in TPX has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on TPX at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

TPX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TPX underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days TPX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TPX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +10.91%) was on Wednesday, 3 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.81%) was on Monday, 1 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and went on till 2 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -10.56% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.1% to investors.

TPX had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TPX underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TPX was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -17.12% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TPX had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That's not just a catchy slogan. It's the very essence of successful investing.
-- J. Paul Getty

TPX is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TPX's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TPX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TPX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TPX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TPX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TPX in your portfolio. TPX usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in TPX you may find it interesting to know that ICPT, OPNT and NVCN are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.

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