TAPESTRY, INC.

35.34 -2.11 (-5.96%) Sell

TPR is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TPR is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in TAPESTRY, INC. made +0.02% per day. Friday's performance of -5.96% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing TPR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TPR experienced a maximum drawdown of -30.46% over the last three months. It fell by -28.96% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +26.31%.

Trend

TPR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Apr, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. One must note that TPR is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, TPR underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days TPR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

TPR returned losses on 69% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.52% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -8.39%, during this period, on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 10 losing days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 23 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.14% of investor capital.

During the last year TPR had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. TPR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TPR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -18.69% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TPR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TPR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Average investors who try to do a lot of trading will only make their brokers rich.
-- Michael Jenson

TPR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TPR's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TPR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TPR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TPR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in TPR derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TPR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TPR in your portfolio. TPR usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in TPR you may find it interesting to know that AYTU has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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