TOLL BROTHERS INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It returned -1.29% to close at 32.22. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 67% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.
TOL is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +1.43% for investors.
TOL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TOL underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days TOL underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months TOL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.16% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.75%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.94%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -4.69% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +11.67% to investors.
On monthly basis, TOL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. TOL delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TOL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -8.83% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TOL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -10.82%. It is interesting to note that both TOL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Don't always trust what you see. In a bull market even a duck looks like a swan.
-- Vijay Kedia
TOL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TOL's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TOL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in TOL derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
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