TOCAGEN INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It delivered -6.06% to close at 8.22. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 8% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in TOCA experienced a maximum drawdown of -47.84% over the last three months. It delivered -32.46% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +15.89%.
TOCA has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 5 May, 2017 to 29 Aug, 2018. Over the last 1 year 8 months and 5 days, TOCA underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days TOCA underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
TOCA returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.48% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -13.71%, during this period, on Wednesday, 3 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -28.22% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw TOCA's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. TOCA was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. TOCA significantly outperformed SP500 index in Sep 2018, when it returned +59.9% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TOCA had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year.
He who loses money, loses much; He who loses a friend, loses much more; He who loses faith, loses all.
-- Eleanor Roosevelt
TOCA is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TOCA's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 25 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TOCA has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TOCA to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TOCA a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
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