TIMKENSTEEL CORP

9.65 -0.3 (-3.11%) Sell

The party never started for TMST investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

TIMKENSTEEL CORP was among the worst performers today. It returned -3.11% to close at 9.65. During the last week it returned -4.08% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.39% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing TMST]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TMST experienced a maximum drawdown of -35.8% over the last three months. It returned -32.47% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +18.21%.

Trend

TMST has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Mar, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TMST underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days TMST underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TMST was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.56% per day. It's best return during this period (of +14.07%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.86%) was on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +5.12% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.33% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, TMST delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. TMST delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TMST was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -21.52% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TMST had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -39.18%.

Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.
-- Jim Rohn

TMST is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TMST's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TMST has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TMST is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TMST. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TMST in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TMST.

On a general note (since you are interested in TMST), EHC is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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