74.22 -1.22 (-1.64%) Sell

TMP investors looking to preserve capital

13 min read

TOMPKINS FINANCIAL CORP was among the worst performers on Friday. It returned -1.64% to close at 74.22. It is currently trading -18% below it's 52 week high of 91.14.

TMP is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +8.09% for investors in the last three months.


TMP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 29 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TMP outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

TMP returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.17% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.78%, during this period, on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 8 Oct, 2018 and went on till 10 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.95% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 12 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -2.84% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, TMP delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. TMP delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TMP significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +11.81% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TMP had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.
-- Robert G. Allen

TMP is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TMP's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 25 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TMP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TMP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TMP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

TMP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, TMP must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TMP.

On a general note (since you are interested in TMP), three instruments that deserve special mention are SBOT, AYTU and AMRH. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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