TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORP

17.11 +0.05 (+0.29%) Sell

Profit booking on the minds of TMHC investors as it performed better than the broader market

13 min read

TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORP was among the best performers on Friday. It returned +0.29% to close at 17.11. It is currently trading -39% below it's 52 week high of 28.41.

[Themes containing TMHC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TMHC experienced a maximum drawdown of -23.93% over the last three months. It lost -11.62% during this strong down trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +11.62% for investors.

Trend

TMHC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, TMHC underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days TMHC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TMHC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.18% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.55%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.07%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 12 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +1.03% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.32% of investor capital.

TMHC had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TMHC underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TMHC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -11.76% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TMHC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -33.34%.

"Behind every stock is a company. Find out what It's doing.

TMHC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TMHC's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TMHC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TMHC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TMHC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

TMHC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, TMHC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TMHC.

On a general note (since you are interested in TMHC), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as TMHC are USM and OEC. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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