TOYOTA MOTOR CORP (Foreign) was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -1.53% to close at 119.97. It is currently trading -14% below it's 52 week high of 140.72.
TM showed a flat trend over the last 3 months. During this period TM delivered +0.66% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.86%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in TM till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
TM has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 2 Feb, 2016 to 10 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, TM underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
TM was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.02% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -2.88%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.44%) started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -5.1%) started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018.
The last 12 months saw TM's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. TM was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. TM significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +7.44% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TM had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TM and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Financial support is one thing, but I always think what becomes really sacrificial is your time.
-- Cliff Richard
TM is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TM's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TM has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
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