TILLY'S, INC.

11.47 +0.25 (+2.14%) Sell

Don't go profit booking on TLYS now, it delivered a decent return

13 min read

TLYS delivered stellar performance today. On a longer term basis, investors in TILLY'S, INC. made +0.05% per day. Friday's performance of +2.14% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing TLYS]

TLYS showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period TLYS lost -41.15% and saw a maximum drawdown of -45.08%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +29.76%.

Trend

TLYS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, TLYS outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

TLYS returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.77% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -21.1%, during this period, on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 28 Sep, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -15.82% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 11 Oct, 2018 and ended on 17 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.14% to investors.

TLYS had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TLYS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TLYS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +51.74% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TLYS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TLYS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
-- Benjamin Franklin

TLYS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TLYS's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 6 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TLYS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TLYS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TLYS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TLYS.

On a general note (since you are interested in TLYS), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are SQ, ABMD and AMD. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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