TIFFANY & CO

82.66 -1.09 (-1.31%) Sell

TIF is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TIFFANY & CO delivered massive losses on Friday. It lost -1.31% to close at 82.66. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing TIF]

TIF is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +24.95% for investors.

Trend

TIF has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 18 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TIF underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days TIF underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TIF was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.63% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.01%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.82%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +8.6% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.12% of investor capital.

TIF had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TIF underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TIF significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +27.18% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TIF had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TIF and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Finance is not merely about making money. It's about achieving our deep goals and protecting the fruits of our labor. It's about stewardship and, therefore, about achieving the good society.

TIF is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TIF's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 4 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TIF has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in TIF derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TIF. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TIF in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TIF.

On a general note (since you are interested in TIF), three instruments that deserve special mention are AYTU, NSPR and AMRH. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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