0.405 -0.01 (-1.94%) Buy

Stop-loss on the minds of THM investors as it underperforms broader market

13 min read

THM is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MINES LTD made +0.06% per day. Friday's performance of -1.94% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

Buy-and-Hold investors in THM experienced a maximum drawdown of -45.23% over the last three months. It lost -12.34% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +13.13%.


THM has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 11 Jul, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, THM outperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days THM outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months THM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.05% per day. It's best return during this period (of +22.25%) was on Friday, 28 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.69%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +43.25% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.98% of investor capital.

THM had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, THM underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. THM was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -30.25% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. THM had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both THM and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

All intelligent investing is value investing - acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock .
-- Charles Thomas Munger

THM is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that THM has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than THM. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than THM in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than THM.

On a general note (since you are interested in THM), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as THM are APOP and AGRX. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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