0.55 -0.01 (-2.65%) Sell

TGB is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TASEKO MINES LTD (Foreign) was among the worst performers today. It lost -2.65% to close at 0.55. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.88%, -3.06%, -1.01%, -3.41% and +3.02%.

[Themes containing TGB]

TGB is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in TGB has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on TGB at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


TGB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 28 Dec, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TGB outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days TGB outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TGB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.87%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.85%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 25 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.0% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 10 Dec, 2018 and ended on 14 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.01% of investor capital.

TGB had 2 profitable and 10 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TGB underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TGB was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -32.12% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TGB had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -53.83%.

"Hats have been my thing pretty much my whole life but finance has not. I would go to the corner store and buy really cheap baseball style caps and wear those to school.

TGB is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TGB's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TGB has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TGB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TGB in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TGB.

On a general note (since you are interested in TGB), ZBRA is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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