205.8 -12.54 (-6.09%) Sell

SIVB is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

SIVB delivered massive losses today. On a longer term basis, investors in SVB FINANCIAL GROUP made +0.11% per day. Friday's performance of -6.09% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing SIVB]

SIVB showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period SIVB lost -36.51% and saw a maximum drawdown of -37.19%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +25.81% to investors.


SIVB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 22 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, SIVB outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

SIVB returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.67% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -12.17%, during this period, on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -11.1% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.64% to investors.

SIVB had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, SIVB underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. SIVB significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +28.36% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SIVB had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both SIVB and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
-- Philip Arthur Fisher

SIVB is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SIVB's volatility from 11 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SIVB has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SIVB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SIVB in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SIVB.

On a general note (since you are interested in SIVB), NIHD has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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