6.89 -0.1 (-1.43%) Sell

SHLO is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

SHILOH INDUSTRIES INC significantly underperformed today. It returned -1.43% to close at 6.89. During the last week it returned -7.02% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.26% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing SHLO]

SHLO is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +23.35% for investors.


SHLO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 3 Mar, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, SHLO outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days SHLO outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

SHLO returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.84% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -13.36%, during this period, on Monday, 1 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -8.14% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 25 Oct, 2018 and ended on 31 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +13.09% to investors.

On monthly basis, SHLO delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. SHLO delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. SHLO significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +24.91% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SHLO had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -30.49%.

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
-- Warren Buffett

SHLO is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SHLO's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 27 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SHLO has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SHLO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SHLO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SHLO.

On a general note (since you are interested in SHLO), three instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH, AYTU and APRN. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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