SMART & FINAL STORES, INC.

5.74 -0.06 (-1.03%) Sell

SFS investors dump it for better alternatives

13 min read

SMART & FINAL STORES, INC. was among the worst performers today. It lost -1.03% to close at 5.74. During the last week it gained +0.53% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.38% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing SFS]

SFS is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for SFS's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -15.59%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to SFS.

Trend

SFS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, SFS underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

SFS returned losses on 60% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.14% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +35.35%, during this period, on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.09% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 28 Sep, 2018 and ended on 5 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.56% of investor capital.

SFS had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, SFS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. SFS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +25.54% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SFS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -60.79%. It is interesting to note that both SFS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.

SFS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in SFS's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 12 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SFS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SFS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SFS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SFS.

Based on your interest in SFS you may find it interesting to know that NFEC, I and TPNL have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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