SHOE CARNIVAL INC

32.65 -0.5 (-1.54%) Sell

Stop-loss on the minds of SCVL investors as it delivered massive losses

13 min read

SHOE CARNIVAL INC significantly underperformed today. It lost -1.54% to close at 32.65. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.61%, -0.06%, -2.71%, -0.14% and 0.0%.

[Themes containing SCVL]

SCVL is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +10.34% for investors.

Trend

SCVL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 31 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, SCVL outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months SCVL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.28% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.5%) was on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.32%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 11 Oct, 2018 and went on till 16 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.83% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 14 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.54% of investor capital.

SCVL had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, SCVL underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. SCVL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +41.73% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SCVL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

Happiness is not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.
-- Franklin D. Roosevelt

SCVL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SCVL's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SCVL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SCVL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SCVL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SCVL.

On a general note (since you are interested in SCVL), three instruments that deserve special mention are ECYT, TNDM and TPNL. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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