SPIRIT AIRLINES, INC.

59.67 -4.55 (-7.62%) Buy

Don't go shopping for SAVE now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

SPIRIT AIRLINES, INC. significantly underperformed today. It delivered -7.62% to close at 59.67. It's recent 5 day performance has been +2.31%, -2.22%, +0.69%, +3.42% and -0.69%.

[Themes containing SAVE]

SAVE showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period SAVE increased by +23.62% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.04%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in SAVE till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

SAVE has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Dec, 2016 to 11 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, SAVE outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days SAVE outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months SAVE was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.39% per day. It's best return during this period (of +15.26%) was on Tuesday, 27 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.62%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 17 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +2.04% to investors.

The last 12 months saw SAVE's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. SAVE was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. SAVE significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +23.55% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SAVE had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -19.94%. It is interesting to note that both SAVE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket.

SAVE is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SAVE's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 25 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SAVE has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect SAVE to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes SAVE a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SAVE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SAVE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SAVE.

Based on your interest in SAVE you may find it interesting to know that HQY, EHC and BURL are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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