24.32 -0.44 (-1.82%) Sell

SAIL is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

SAILPOINT TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS, INC. was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -1.82% to close at 24.32. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 2% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing SAIL]

SAIL showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period SAIL delivered -23.18% and saw a maximum drawdown of -31.21%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +15.61%.


SAIL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 17 Nov, 2017 to 25 Sep, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 1 month, SAIL outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

SAIL returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.35% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -12.37%, during this period, on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.74% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw SAIL's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. SAIL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. SAIL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +28.39% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SAIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -28.18%. It is interesting to note that both SAIL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
-- Phillip Fisher

SAIL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SAIL's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 11 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SAIL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SAIL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, SAIL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SAIL.

Based on your interest in SAIL you may find it interesting to know that DFBG and HEAR have both shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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