Waiting to invest in RYAAY? Avoid at the moment as it was among the worst performers
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC (Foreign) was among the worst performers today. It delivered -1.28% to close at 72.6. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.94%, +0.32%, -0.12%, -1.97% and -6.04%.
RYAAY showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period RYAAY delivered -24.84% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.1%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +21.58% to investors.
RYAAY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 16 Aug, 2017 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, RYAAY underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days RYAAY underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
RYAAY returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.41% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -15.73%, during this period, on Monday, 1 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 12 Oct, 2018 and went on till 22 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.87% to investors.
The last 12 months saw RYAAY's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. RYAAY was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. RYAAY significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +16.59% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. RYAAY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -17.78%.
The habit of saving is itself an education; it fosters every virtue, teaches self-denial, cultivates the sense of order, trains to forethought, and so broadens the mind.
-- T.T. Munger
RYAAY is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RYAAY's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RYAAY has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RYAAY to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RYAAY a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RYAAY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RYAAY in your portfolio. RYAAY usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
Based on your interest in RYAAY you may find it interesting to know that IMTE is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to IMTE or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.
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