Looking to invest in RVNC? Avoid at the moment as it has destroyed investor wealth
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC. has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It fell by -3.82% to close at 19.91. It is currently trading -46% below it's 52 week high of 37.4.
RVNC showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period RVNC fell by -15.46% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.51%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +15.46%.
RVNC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 5 Jan, 2016 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, RVNC underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
RVNC returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.2% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +19.47%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.87% of investor capital.
During the last year RVNC had 1 profitable months and 11 loss making months. RVNC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. RVNC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jan 2018, returned -13.64% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. RVNC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -26.46%.
Wealth is like sea-water; the more we drink, the thirstier we become; and the same is true of fame.
-- Arthur Schopenhauer
RVNC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in RVNC's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 24 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RVNC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RVNC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RVNC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RVNC.
Based on your interest in RVNC you may find it interesting to know that NVCN, ICPT and IX are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.
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