17.36 +0.02 (+0.12%) Sell

RLGY does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

REALOGY HOLDINGS CORP. was among the best performers today. It returned +0.12% to close at 17.36. During the last week it lost -6.01% and saw a maximum drawdown of -6.12% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing RLGY]

RLGY is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +15.77% for investors in the last three months.


RLGY has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, RLGY underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months RLGY delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +5.24%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.51%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 16 Nov, 2018 and went on till 29 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +11.57% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 7 Dec, 2018 and ended on 13 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.14% of investor capital.

RLGY had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, RLGY underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. RLGY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Apr 2018, returned -9.88% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. RLGY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -35.67%.

Fortune sides with him who dares.
-- Virgil

RLGY is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RLGY's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RLGY has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RLGY to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RLGY a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RLGY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RLGY in your portfolio. RLGY usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in RLGY), if you are an investor in NVCN, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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