53.05 -0.05 (-0.09%) Sell

RGR investors re-evaluating their investment strategy

13 min read

STURM RUGER & CO INC underperformed on Monday. It fell by -0.09% to close at 53.05. It is currently trading -23% below it's 52 week high of 69.3.

[Themes containing RGR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in RGR experienced a maximum drawdown of -25.21% over the last three months. It fell by -22.55% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +17.93%.


RGR has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 Mar, 2016 to 28 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, RGR underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days RGR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months RGR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.39% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.73%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.29%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.14% of investor capital.

During the last year RGR had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. RGR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. RGR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +21.95% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. RGR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

But having said that, what's happening with campaign finance reform and our political culture is devastating.
-- Robert McChesney

RGR is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RGR's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RGR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RGR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RGR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RGR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RGR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RGR.

On a general note (since you are interested in RGR), three instruments that deserve special mention are NSPR, APRN and AYTU. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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