ROYAL GOLD INC

78.09 +0.03 (+0.04%) Sell

RGLD shows sign of weakness as investors do cost averaging

13 min read

RGLD is looking better than most other alternatives today. On a longer term basis, investors in ROYAL GOLD INC made +0.04% per day. Tuesday's performance of +0.04% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing RGLD]

RGLD showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period RGLD grew by +4.51% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.86%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in RGLD till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

RGLD has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, RGLD outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months RGLD delivered losses on 57% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +5.84%) was on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.65%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 22 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -2.14% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 7 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.06% to investors.

On monthly basis, RGLD delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. RGLD delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. RGLD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Aug 2018, returned -9.87% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. RGLD had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

Anybody who plays the stock market not as an insider is like a man buying cows in the moonlight.
-- Daniel Drew

RGLD is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RGLD's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RGLD has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RGLD to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RGLD a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RGLD. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RGLD in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RGLD.

Based on your interest in RGLD you may find it interesting to know that AMD and LULU are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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