RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Thursday. It lost -0.85% to close at 25.62. It is currently trading +161% above it's 52 week low of 9.8 and is down only -18% from it's 52 week high.
REGI showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period REGI lost -5.81% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.4%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in REGI till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
REGI was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.03% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -13.71%, during this period, on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 11 Oct, 2018 and went on till 18 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +18.11% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 19 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.15% of investor capital.
REGI had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, REGI underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. REGI significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +58.06% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. REGI had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.
Every time you borrow money, you're robbing your future self.
-- Nathan W. Morris
REGI is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in REGI's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that REGI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect REGI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes REGI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
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