104.92 -5.06 (-4.83%) Sell

RCL investors take a massive hit

13 min read

ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD ranked among the worst performers today. It lost -4.83% to close at 104.92. During the last week it lost -7.21% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.17% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing RCL]

RCL is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +11.17% for investors.


RCL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, RCL underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

RCL returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.24% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.86%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -4.92% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 16 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.02% to investors.

RCL had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, RCL underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. RCL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.21% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. RCL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -23.42%. It is interesting to note that both RCL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.
-- John Wayne

RCL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RCL's volatility from 11 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RCL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RCL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RCL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in RCL derivatives at this moment can consider 'Bull Call Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RCL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RCL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RCL.

On a general note (since you are interested in RCL), two instruments that deserve special mention are TNDM and I. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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