75.65 -2.55 (-3.37%) Sell

Don't invest in QLYS now, it is an investor's nightmare

13 min read

QUALYS, INC. has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It delivered -3.37% to close at 75.65. It is currently trading -22% below it's 52 week high of 97.05.

[Themes containing QLYS]

QLYS showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period QLYS delivered -18.3% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.41%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.51%.


QLYS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 Feb, 2016 to 18 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, QLYS outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

During the last three months QLYS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.27% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.15%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.34%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.78% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw QLYS's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. QLYS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. QLYS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Feb 2018, when it returned +18.48% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. QLYS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

Making money from enforcing patents is no more wrong than investing in preferred stock.
-- Nathan Myhrvold

QLYS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in QLYS's volatility from 11 Sep, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that QLYS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect QLYS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes QLYS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than QLYS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than QLYS in your portfolio. QLYS usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in QLYS you may find it interesting to know that AAXN, HQY and BURL are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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