93.47 +0.33 (+0.35%) Sell

Joy for PKG investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout

14 min read

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA ranked better than it's peers on Wednesday. It delivered +0.35% to close at 93.47. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 8% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.54%.

[Themes containing PKG]

Buy-and-Hold investors in PKG experienced a maximum drawdown of -29.16% over the last three months. It delivered -17.84% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +12.72%.


PKG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 22 Feb, 2016 to 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, PKG outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months PKG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.29% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.36%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.13%) was on Tuesday, 9 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +3.81%) started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.38%) started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018.

The last 12 months saw PKG's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. PKG was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. PKG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -16.52% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. PKG had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -19.37%. It is interesting to note that both PKG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is multiplied in practical value depending on the number of W's you control in your life: what you do, when you do it, where you do it, and with whom you do it.
-- Timothy Ferriss

PKG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PKG's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PKG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PKG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PKG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PKG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PKG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PKG.

Based on your interest in PKG you may find it interesting to know that HEAR and DFBG have both shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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