PULTEGROUP INC

25.75 +0.19 (+0.74%) Buy

PHM continues to mint money for it's investors

13 min read

PHM ranked among the best performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in PULTEGROUP INC made +0.02% per day. Tuesday's performance of +0.74% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing PHM]

PHM showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period PHM delivered -6.26% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.99%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.66%.

Trend

PHM has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Dec, 2017 to 22 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, PHM outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months PHM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.08% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.28%) was on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.44%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 16 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +10.45% to investors.

The last 12 months saw PHM's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. PHM was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. PHM was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -11.81% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. PHM had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from May 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -19.92%. It is interesting to note that both PHM and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.
-- Robert G. Allen

PHM is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PHM's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PHM has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PHM to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PHM a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in PHM derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

PHM has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, PHM must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PHM.

On a general note (since you are interested in PHM), three instruments that deserve special mention are PRQR, NIHD and TPNL. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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