34.73 -0.3 (-0.86%) Buy

Search for alternative investments is on for PFGC investors as it performed worse than the broader market

13 min read

PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP CO is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It delivered -0.86% to close at 34.73. During the last week it surged by +1.94% and saw a maximum drawdown of -0.86% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing PFGC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in PFGC experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.16% over the last three months. It surged by +6.53% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +2.68%.


PFGC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Dec, 2016 to 20 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, PFGC outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

PFGC returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.12% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +9.62%, during this period, on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 20 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.55% to investors.

The last 12 months saw PFGC's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. PFGC was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. PFGC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +17.53% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. PFGC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

"Even though the quotes above come from some of the most intelligent people on Wall Street, the ideas behind them are both quite simple and insightful.

PFGC is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PFGC's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PFGC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PFGC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PFGC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PFGC.

On a general note (since you are interested in PFGC), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are MSFT and CSCO. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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