PENN NATIONAL GAMING INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It lost -3.42% to close at 22.0. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 89% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0004%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in PENN experienced a maximum drawdown of -41.75% over the last three months. It lost -31.16% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +14.32%.
PENN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, PENN outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days PENN outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.
PENN returned losses on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.55% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -8.5%, during this period, on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 18 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.23% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 19 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -22.12% of investor capital.
PENN had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, PENN underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. PENN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -25.86% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. PENN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -39.77%. It is interesting to note that both PENN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The art and culture that is New York, communications, finance, all these things help make up New York. The rest of the country should be happy that we are what we are.
-- David Dinkins
PENN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PENN's volatility from 26 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PENN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PENN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PENN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
Based on your interest in PENN you may find it interesting to know that ICPT is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to ICPT or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.
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