63.65 -0.37 (-0.58%) Sell

OSK continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

OSHKOSH CORP showed weakness today. It fell by -0.58% to close at 63.65. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.36%, -1.19%, +1.69%, -0.41% and -4.32%.

[Themes containing OSK]

OSK is currently in a bearish trend. The previous short signal in OSK has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on OSK at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


OSK has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 2 Feb, 2016 to 31 Oct, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, OSK outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months OSK was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.2% per day. It's best return during this period (of +21.41%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.62%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.05% of investor capital.

During the last year OSK had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. OSK returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. OSK significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +27.06% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. OSK had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -20.39%. It is interesting to note that both OSK and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship.

OSK is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in OSK's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OSK has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than OSK. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than OSK in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OSK.

On a general note (since you are interested in OSK), if you are evaluating OSK as an investment candidate, then you should read about BCPC which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.

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