45.85 +0.12 (+0.26%) Sell

Are you evaluating investing in ORCL? Consider as it performed better than the broader market

13 min read

ORACLE CORP performed better than the broader market today. It returned +0.26% to close at 45.85. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.87%, -1.33%, -0.19%, +1.85% and -0.45%.

[Themes containing ORCL]

ORCL showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ORCL lost -7.24% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.72%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ORCL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


ORCL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ORCL outperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

During the last three months ORCL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.11% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.67%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.25%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -4.61% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 2 Nov, 2018 and ended on 9 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +4.1% to investors.

ORCL had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ORCL underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ORCL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +10.64% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ORCL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ORCL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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ORCL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ORCL's volatility from 9 Oct, 2018 to 18 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ORCL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ORCL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ORCL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in ORCL derivatives at this moment can consider 'Calendar Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ORCL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ORCL in your portfolio. ORCL usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ORCL), three instruments that are extremely volatile are VIPS, IX and ICPT. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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