OLD NATIONAL BANCORP

16.79 -0.33 (-1.98%) Sell

ONB investors incur serious losses

13 min read

OLD NATIONAL BANCORP significantly underperformed today. It delivered -1.98% to close at 16.79. During the last week it delivered -3.73% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.84% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing ONB]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ONB experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.08% over the last three months. It delivered -17.49% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +15.42%.

Trend

ONB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Apr, 2016 to 27 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, ONB underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days ONB underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ONB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.29% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.06%) was on Wednesday, 3 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.04%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 8 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +5.33% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ONB's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. ONB was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ONB was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -10.36% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ONB had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

I think that stocks have been this tremendous, tremendous equalizer for people in this country. Guys who can't make a lot of money at their jobs have been able to make a lot of money in the stock market.
-- Jim Cramer

ONB is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ONB's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ONB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ONB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ONB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

ONB has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ONB must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ONB.

On a general note (since you are interested in ONB), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are UNH and AMZN. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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