ONEOK INC

59.99 +0.63 (+1.04%) Sell

Profit booking on the minds of OKE investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout

13 min read

ONEOK INC delivered good returns on Friday. It grew by +1.04% to close at 59.99. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 15% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Themes containing OKE]

Buy-and-Hold investors in OKE experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.99% over the last three months. It returned -7.08% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +0.92%.

Trend

OKE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, OKE outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months OKE delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.09%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.52%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +7.46% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.91% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, OKE delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. OKE delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. OKE significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +13.18% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. OKE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both OKE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something - and then pay a lot less.
-- Joel Greenblatt

OKE is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in OKE's volatility from 9 Oct, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OKE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in OKE derivatives at this moment can consider 'Bear Put Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than OKE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than OKE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OKE.

On a general note (since you are interested in OKE), TPNL has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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