OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INC

128.75 -5.22 (-4.05%) Sell

ODFL is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It delivered -4.05% to close at 128.75. It is currently trading -23% below it's 52 week high of 168.03.

[Themes containing ODFL]

ODFL is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +16.65% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

ODFL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 11 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, ODFL outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

ODFL returned losses on 61% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.39% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.33%, during this period, on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +15.39% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ODFL's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. ODFL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ODFL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.29% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ODFL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year.

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

ODFL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ODFL's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ODFL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ODFL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ODFL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

ODFL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ODFL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ODFL.

Based on your interest in ODFL you may find it interesting to know that AMD is a mid cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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