23.34 -0.48 (-2.06%) Sell

OCFC is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP delivered massive losses on Friday. It delivered -2.06% to close at 23.34 which is it's 52 week low, down -24% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing OCFC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in OCFC experienced a maximum drawdown of -18.62% over the last three months. It delivered -18.22% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +18.22% for investors.


OCFC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 17 May, 2016 to 4 Jan, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, OCFC underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days OCFC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

OCFC returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.31% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.88%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 8 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +3.85% to investors.

The last 12 months saw OCFC's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. OCFC was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. OCFC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -9.43% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. OCFC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

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OCFC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in OCFC's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OCFC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

OCFC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, OCFC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OCFC.

Based on your interest in OCFC you may find it interesting to know that CSCO and V are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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