Waiting to invest in OAS? Avoid at the moment as it was among the worst performers
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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OAS was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in OASIS PETROLEUM INC. made +0.13% per day. Thursday's performance of -0.47% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
OAS showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period OAS delivered -48.7% and saw a maximum drawdown of -55.85%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +47.12%.
OAS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 20 Dec, 2016 to 13 Dec, 2018. One must note that OAS is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, OAS underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days OAS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months OAS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.99% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.54%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.82%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.95% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw OAS's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. OAS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. OAS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +41.96% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. OAS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
-- Philip Arthur Fisher
OAS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in OAS's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OAS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than OAS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than OAS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OAS.
On a general note (since you are interested in OAS), SQ is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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