OAKTREE CAPITAL GROUP, LLC

41.51 -0.24 (-0.57%) Buy

OAK investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

OAK has destroyed investor wealth today. On a longer term basis, investors in OAKTREE CAPITAL GROUP, LLC made 0.0% per day. Friday's performance of -0.57% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing OAK]

OAK showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period OAK gained +5.89% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.46%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in OAK till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

OAK has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, OAK underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

OAK returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.1% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.07%, during this period, on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.34% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.91% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, OAK delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. OAK delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. OAK was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -9.15% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. OAK had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both OAK and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A stock broker is one who invests other people's money until its all gone.
-- Woody Allen

OAK is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in OAK's volatility from 5 Oct, 2018 to 25 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OAK has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect OAK to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes OAK a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

OAK has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, OAK must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OAK.

On a general note (since you are interested in OAK), TNDM has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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