NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC

9.5 -0.37 (-3.85%) Buy

Search for alternative investments is on for NYCB investors as it underperforms broader market

13 min read

NYCB was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC made +0.03% per day. Thursday's performance of -3.85% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing NYCB]

Buy-and-Hold investors in NYCB experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.36% over the last three months. It delivered -11.96% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +2.13%.

Trend

NYCB has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 Feb, 2016 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, NYCB underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days NYCB underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months NYCB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.65%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.38%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +6.04%) started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -6.85%) started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018.

The last 12 months saw NYCB's investors making profits in 2 months and incurring losses in 10 months. NYCB was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. NYCB significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +10.96% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NYCB had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -24.73%.

If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record. It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.
-- Charlie Munger

NYCB is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NYCB's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NYCB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NYCB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NYCB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NYCB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NYCB in your portfolio. NYCB usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in NYCB), ZBRA is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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