NORTHWEST NATURAL HOLDING CO

67.06 -0.5 (-0.74%) Buy

NWN investors check their stop-losses as it underperforms

13 min read

NORTHWEST NATURAL HOLDING CO delivered massive losses on Friday. It lost -0.74% to close at 67.06. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing NWN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in NWN experienced a maximum drawdown of -8.64% over the last three months. It lost -4.13% during this down trending period. There were no short signals during this period. However, the long signal was not profitable and lost investors -4.13%.

Trend

NWN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, NWN outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

NWN was profitable on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.06% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.49%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -5.18% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 2 Nov, 2018 and ended on 9 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.96% to investors.

NWN had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, NWN underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. NWN significantly outperformed SP500 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +10.55% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NWN had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year.

Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.
-- John Wayne

NWN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NWN's volatility from 6 Nov, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NWN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NWN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NWN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

NWN has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, NWN must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NWN.

On a general note (since you are interested in NWN), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are AMZN, MSFT and UNH. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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