80.48 -0.93 (-1.15%) Buy

Stop-loss on the minds of NHC investors as it shows weakness

13 min read

NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP has destroyed investor wealth today. It delivered -1.15% to close at 80.48. During the last week it delivered -0.24% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.15% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing NHC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in NHC experienced a maximum drawdown of -5.09% over the last three months. It delivered +5.56% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.04%.


NHC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Dec, 2016 to 26 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, NHC underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days NHC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months NHC was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.1% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.81%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.91%) was on Friday, 14 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 30 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.2% to investors.

The last 12 months saw NHC's investors making profits in 9 months and incurring losses in 3 months. During the last year, NHC delivered profits in more months than SP500 index. NHC significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +8.36% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NHC and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.

Let's not allow the voice of the people to be overwhelmed by the siren song of those who opposed regulation, who demanded that government should stand aside and let finance and business run the show.
-- David Blunkett

NHC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in NHC's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NHC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NHC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NHC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NHC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NHC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NHC.

On a general note (since you are interested in NHC), PFE is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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