55.87 -0.11 (-0.2%) Sell

NFG investors treading cautiously as performance is muted

13 min read

NFG showed weakness today. On a longer term basis, investors in NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO made +0.01% per day. Friday's performance of -0.2% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing NFG]

Buy-and-Hold investors in NFG experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.51% over the last three months. It returned -1.45% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals.


NFG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, NFG outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months NFG delivered profits on 53% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.88%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.95%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.53% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 22 Oct, 2018 and ended on 29 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.6% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, NFG delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. NFG delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. NFG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -11.34% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. NFG had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +15.03%.

"Infinite growth of material consumption in a finite world is an impossibility.

NFG is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NFG's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NFG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NFG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NFG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NFG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NFG in your portfolio. NFG usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in NFG), three instruments that deserve special mention are NSPR, AYTU and SBOT. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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