MASTEC INC

39.5 -1.14 (-2.88%) Sell

MTZ is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

MASTEC INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It lost -2.88% to close at 39.5 which is it's 52 week low, down -27% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing MTZ]

MTZ showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period MTZ lost -8.35% and saw a maximum drawdown of -22.04%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in MTZ till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

MTZ has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 20 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MTZ outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days MTZ outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

MTZ was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.1% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.15%, during this period, on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -4.2% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +17.7% to investors.

MTZ had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MTZ underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. MTZ was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -12.4% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MTZ had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -18.72%.

"You and I come by road or rail, but economists travel on infrastructure.

MTZ is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MTZ's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MTZ has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MTZ. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MTZ in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MTZ.

On a general note (since you are interested in MTZ), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are LULU and TWTR. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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