221.27 -3.71 (-1.68%) Sell

Prayers for MTN investors as it destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

VAIL RESORTS INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Thursday. It delivered -1.68% to close at 221.27. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 5% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing MTN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MTN experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.79% over the last three months. It delivered -24.79% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.


MTN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 17 May, 2016 to 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, MTN outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

During the last three months MTN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.03%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -17.85%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 26 Sep, 2018 and ended on 8 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.46% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw MTN's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. MTN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. MTN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -20.74% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MTN had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

"I made my money by selling too soon.

MTN is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MTN's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MTN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MTN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MTN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MTN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MTN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MTN.

On a general note (since you are interested in MTN), two instruments that deserve special mention are NSPR and AMRH. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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