149.68 -4.49 (-3.0%) Sell

Waiting to invest in MTB? Avoid at the moment as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

MTB ranked among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in M&T BANK CORP made -0.03% per day. Thursday's performance of -3.0% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing MTB]

MTB showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period MTB delivered -12.58% and saw a maximum drawdown of -13.48%. There were 4 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +6.08% to investors.


MTB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Aug, 2016 to 6 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, MTB underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days MTB underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MTB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.2% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.4%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.43%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +6.79%) started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 31 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -4.99%) started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018.

The last 12 months saw MTB's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. MTB was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. MTB was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -11.44% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MTB had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both MTB and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Everything is always feasible if you run a corporate finance exercise: you can always try to come out with a justification on how things could work. But the real issue is to say how do you translate that into practice.

MTB is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MTB's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MTB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MTB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MTB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

MTB has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, MTB must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MTB.

On a general note (since you are interested in MTB), TNDM has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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