MSA SAFETY INC

100.54 -0.88 (-0.88%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of MSA investors as it significantly underperforms

13 min read

MSA SAFETY INC ranked among the worst performers on Thursday. It fell by -0.88% to close at 100.54. It is currently trading +38% above it's 52 week low of 72.77 and is down only -9% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing MSA]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MSA experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.65% over the last three months. It fell by -4.85% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

MSA has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 22 Jan, 2016 to 16 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, MSA outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months MSA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.05% per day. It's best return during this period (of +12.88%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.29%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.51% of investor capital.

During the last year MSA had 10 profitable months and 2 loss making months. MSA returned profits in more months than SP500 index. MSA was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -7.75% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MSA had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 10 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered +38.02%.

Happiness is not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.
-- Franklin D. Roosevelt

MSA is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MSA's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MSA has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MSA. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MSA in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MSA.

On a general note (since you are interested in MSA), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are AMZN and PFE. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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