48.1 -0.28 (-0.58%) Sell

MRCY continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

MERCURY SYSTEMS INC trailed the broader market today. It returned -0.58% to close at 48.1. During the last week it returned -1.6% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.03% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing MRCY]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MRCY experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.87% over the last three months. It returned -14.79% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +4.03%.


MRCY has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MRCY outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months MRCY was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.22% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.49%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.97%) was on Wednesday, 17 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.83% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 5 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.43% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, MRCY delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. MRCY delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. MRCY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Apr 2018, returned -33.12% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MRCY had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

It's how you deal with failure that determines how you achieve success.
-- David Feherty

MRCY is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MRCY's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MRCY has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MRCY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MRCY in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MRCY.

Based on your interest in MRCY you may find it interesting to know that ALGN and PJC have both performed similar to MRCY and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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