33.7 -0.01 (-0.03%) Sell

MPLX investors take a moment to reassess their portfolio allocation

13 min read

MPLX LP showed weakness on Friday. It delivered -0.03% to close at 33.7. It is currently trading -13% below it's 52 week high of 39.12.

[Themes containing MPLX]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MPLX experienced a maximum drawdown of -10.46% over the last three months. It delivered -5.44% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +3.36%.


MPLX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Jan, 2016 to 25 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MPLX underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days MPLX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MPLX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.08% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.01%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.35%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.97% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw MPLX's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. MPLX was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. MPLX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +8.18% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MPLX had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -11.11%. It is interesting to note that both MPLX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There can be no rise in the value of labour without a fall of profits.

MPLX is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MPLX's volatility from 9 Oct, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MPLX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MPLX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MPLX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MPLX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MPLX in your portfolio. MPLX usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in MPLX you may find it interesting to know that LULU and AMD are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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